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Winter is Coming: German Economy Doomed in Wake of Anti-Russian Sanctions, Scholars Say_我的网站

一 |     本报记者 宋雨航          　　一年来，市中院办公室深入学习贯彻落实党的二十大精神，严格执行党组各项工作要求，坚持高起点、高站位、高标准，紧紧围绕审判执行工作，充分发挥服务职能，助力全院各项工作高效运转，确保各项工作抓出新力度，跑出加速度，实现新高度，获得了市中院2023年度“先进集体”荣誉称号。    While Germany's producer prices observe the biggest rise since records began in 1949, the index has also shown the biggest month-on-month increase, leaping 5.3% from June to July.,"The outlook for the further development [of the economy] is currently noticeably gloomy," and marked by "a high degree of uncertainty," Germany's Finance Ministry said in its August monthly report, quoted by Reuters.,"We have something like a tsunami coming," said Florian Josef Hoffmann, former president of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce East Thuringia and author of "Occupy Economics." "It’s calm water, everything goes slowly down. For example, furniture retail has completely stopped and other things are going down, too. Everything goes slower step by step. But the disaster comes, as I told you, in autumn. And that will be very bad. I can't imagine that this economy can easily survive this really critical situation.",Germans have been experiencing some pre-existing domestic problems as the government turned down nuclear and coal plants in order to switch over to gas and renewables, he noted. However, anti-Russian sanctions which included a sweeping energy embargo "create a real huge problem for the economy because it is based on the cheap Russian gas and now it's cut down by the own will of the government," according to Hoffmann.,"They cut down the gas import [from Russia]," he explained. "So the whole strategy of the past is ruined, and that's the problem. And that makes for great uncertainty because more or less the ship runs against the ice mountain. It's more than uncertainty; I see even the crash coming along for the German economy, not only because of these sanctions, but because of the consequences of the sanctions.",Energy Crisis in EuropeEU Will Not Replace Russian Gas in Full If Nord Stream 1 Remains Shut, Expert Says19 July, 18:20 GMT,The Russo-German chill started with Berlin suspending the Nord Stream 2 project on February 22, 2022. Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine two days later, after the US, NATO and the EU defied Russia's draft security agreements envisaging ending the transatlantic military alliance's expansion and deployment in Ukraine.,In the aftermath of the operation, the US and its NATO allies have introduced several packages of sanctions. The EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030, following in Washington and London's footsteps. In April, Brussels laid out targets to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Western sanctions also complicated Gazprom's maintenance of the existing Nord Stream 1 infrastructure. The Russian company was forced to reduce shipments via the network in mid-June over delays in the repair of a Siemens-built high-pressure gas pumping turbine in Canada. Ottawa deliberately delayed the return of the turbine, which had undergone maintenance work, back to Europe, citing anti-Russian sanctions. To make matters worse, the Canadian side did not provide proper documentation for the turbine which resulted in further delays. In late July, Gazprom said that it had to stop the operation of another Siemens gas turbine engine for maintenance, which prompted western press to groundlessly claim that Russia was deliberately cutting gas supplies to Europe.,Berlin's energy policy is dictated from Washington for the detriment of the people of Germany, according to Dr. Christian Blex, an AfD lawmaker from the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia.,"The sanctions that the hypermoral German government in particular is repeatedly demanding are therefore particularly bad for our country," he said. "Any responsible government would base its actions on the well-being of its own people rather than acting as a vassal of the US.",Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says08:42 GMT,Biggest Problems Coming in Autumn, Winter,As of yet, the negative impact of sanctions is not particularly felt by ordinary Germans, according to the observers.,"At the moment we don't feel anything. Big bills are only announced and haven't yet reached the consumers," said Hoffmann. "But the announcements are that the energy prices will go up three to five fold, for many people [this will be] simply unpayable. That’s what is going to come in autumn. Ordinary people prepare by buying canned food or wood or gas stoves. What I also know is, for instance, that not only the ordinary people, but also the cities are preparing. The city of Dusseldorf is cutting down the heating of all gangways in their administration facilities. They are cutting the temperature down from 21 degrees centigrade to 19 or even 17, closing saunas and heating outside swimming pools. They are cutting down lights on public buildings.",While the people are not yet in panic, the German authorities are, according to Hoffmann.,"The government is talking about reducing the turnover tax for gas from 19% to 7% and they are trying to reduce the tax load for pensioners and other instruments to calm down the people," he noted. "But it's ridiculous what they plan when you look at the task of breaking a huge breakdown of the economy. It's only peanuts.",Meanwhile, businesses are expecting climbing power prices, and they are already thinking about how to compensate for that, according to him.,"The German economy looks to the future with serious concerns," echoed Blex. "In contrast to many citizens, business knows exactly what the energy crisis will bring. In public, however, criticism is heard only hesitantly. Fear of green politics and the media is still very great. As the suffering increases, the criticism will become louder… The biggest problems are coming up for the ordinary people with the inflation of food prices and extremely with the power costs. It will hit the poor, the low income class, those who will have to pay not 40, 50 or 60 euros per month for their power, but 200, 400 or even 500. That will make them not only hungry but upset.",WorldGerman Craftsmen Urge Chancellor Scholz to Scrap Sanctions Against Russia13:40 GMT,The AfD lawmaker expects a worsening recession with industrial production falling noticeably in Germany. He forecasts that short-time work will be reintroduced, adding that retailers are already noticing that more and more Germans are making significant savings. After all, the German national debt will continue to rise rapidly, according to him.,For his part, Hoffmann does not rule out that the people will eventually take to the streets en masse, stressing that the German government has already been preparing for this scenario.,"Our Ministry of Defense is preparing a special task force of 1900 soldiers, which have to keep peace within the country," he said. "This is an incredible decision. Our Bundeswehr is an army solely for defense against attacks from the outside. This basic rule is now broken, which means we are now in a totalitarian regime which has no respect for laws and our Constitution. They simply do what they want including censorship. And as one can see, they are preparing for a revolution.",Hoffmann cites German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as saying that the country's forces won't shoot at the people. However, the author expresses skepticism about Scholz' pledge: "It is like 'nobody wants to build a wall' in 1961 and then it was built some weeks later. So, the situation is disastrous," he concluded.。         　　学习理论，锻造过硬队伍          　　办公室始终坚持以理论武装为核心，以增强业务能力为抓手，通过采取部门集中学、干警自主学、集体研讨学等方式，实现了部门干警政治素养有提升、理论水平有增强、业务素质有提高，政治学习有高度。         　　始终把政治建设摆在首位，持续深入学习宣传贯彻党的二十大精神和习近平法治思想，教育引导办公室干警提高思想认识，强化履职担当，努力做好司法政务工作。

二 | 扎实开展学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想主题教育，严格落实“三会一课”制度要求，组织党支部同志认真开展支部学习，队伍政治素养有了明显提升。         　　强化业务素质培养，提升政务工作水平。

三 | 自2022年以来，办公室牵头制定了涵盖法院信息、机要保密、印信管理、档案管理、政务督办、代表联络和重大事项请示报告等方面的管理制度文件10余项，为全市法院开展相关工作提供遵循。

四 | 利用月例会、专题会议等方式，组织学习关于司法政务工作制度文件，提升全体工作人员业务能力。

五 | 组织召开全市法院司法政务工作会议暨司法政务工作培训会，提升全市法院司法政务干警的服务意识、责任意识、创新意识、学习意识。         　　高效服务，提升工作质效          　　为进一步规范分办、阅批和分转流程，不断提高机关办文效率，办公室实行台账制、专人管理，实现高效化办公。2023年全年共办理各机关来文3981件，无文件丢失、拖延、积压现象，确保机关政令通畅。加强统筹把关，认真做好公文审核工作，严格控制发文数量。         　　做好“精细化”的督查督办，实时跟进工作进展和完成进度，多措并举提升工作质效。实行制度化的信息报送，进一步加强和规范全市法院信息工作，每年编发《法院信息》50多期。通过印发工作提示，督促和指导各部门严格落实重大事项请示报告工作要求，重大事项、重大改革、重大敏感案件和重要司法政策及时请示报告。制定印发档案管理规定，进一步规范档案管理，及时清理长期未归、未还档案，提升档案服务水平。         　　统筹管理，做好服务保障          　　办公室发挥“中枢”作用，抓好重要会议、重要活动、全院性事务的统筹协调。规范保障院党组会、院长办公会议，做到会务保障准确、周密。严格执行公务接待有关规定，做到公务接待规范、细致、周到；持续规范管理，全力服务审判执行工作。严格执行上级法院关于裁判文书制作的有关要求，规范、及时做好裁判文书和各类文件资料的制印、复印工作。严格按照公务用车管理规定，合理安排调度公务车辆，做到车辆使用无违规、行驶无事故。         　　通过对工作举措的细化，办公室明确分工、提升能力、加强联系，做好人民群众的司法贴心人。制定印发代表委员联络工作规定，对全市法院代表委员联络工作提出明确要求。积极开展人大代表政协委员见证“服务保障全面振兴新突破首战告捷”活动，一年来共邀请人大代表、政协委员参加视察、座谈、旁听庭审、见证执行200多人次。高质量办结代表委员建议提案3件，满意率为100％。

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